Zippidy Doo Da

I'm not stupid, I'm from Texas!

Tuesday, August 26, 2008


I noticed from cruising the weatherblogs last night that the forecasts on Hurricane Gustav turned about 180 degrees from what they were yesterday afternoon, bringing the storm more towards the Gulf Coast.

My interest in looking in on the weather nerds is the lingering stink of failed computer models on Faye, that has them fighting amongst themselves.

For those of us that don't enjoy picking out a safe-room, boarding up, and estimating the number of weeks until we can safely shower, less squabble and more scientific consensus would be better.

I think the safest bet in terms of forecasts is the following from one of the lay-meteorologists at

Beyond late Saturday night, the global models have different ideas on where they want to track Gustav. The Canadian model is forecasting a landfall on the central Texas coast on Labor Day. The NOGAPS model is forecasting a landfall on the central Gulf Coast next Tuesday. The European model is forecasting a northern Mexico landfall around next Tuesday. The overall synoptic situation once Gustav gets into the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend will highly depend on the timing of a departing eastern trough of low pressure and a building ridge of high pressure that will move in behind the departing trough. If the departing trough is able to pick up Gustav, then a eastern Gulf Coast hit may occur as early as Labor Day. If the trough of low pressure leaves Gustav behind and the ridge of high pressure pushes Gustav further west, then a central or western Gulf Coast hit may occur late Labor Day or next Tuesday. Therefore, all interests along the entire Gulf Coast should pay close attention to the forecast for Gustav.


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