It Ain't Over

No, the contest for the Democratic Party nomination for President certainly isn’t over. Eight states have yet to vote or caucus, that’s 566 votes right there that could put either candidate closer to the 2,024 total to clinch the nomination. Folks in those states are sure to be excited about having a say in this race, too.

The Democratic Party’s proportional voting rules probably ensure that after June 3rd, neither candidate will have the necessary delegates locked up, even including their committed superdelegates, leaving the uncommitted delegates the job of choosing which candidate will prevail.

I saw some lefty professors and consultants on CSPAN yesterday discussing the “inside baseball” that is the nomination process and was left with the feeling that this prolonged campaign is not the disaster that so many are wringing their hands about.

James Thurber, Director of American University’s Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies (Wouldn’t you love to be named “James Thurber?” I once knew a man who looked like James Thurber, but his name was Tom Collins, which is also way cool.) suggested that all this may bring advantages to the Dems, by allowing them to dominate news reports and mobilize new voters.

Professor Anthony Corrado of the Brookings Institute said that because the candidates are forced to run everywhere, they will be well known in every state, which could give them an edge in fundraising, organization, and training that should pay dividends in November.

Democratic strategist Tad Devine, who worked on the Kerry campaign that won a record number of votes in 2004, said that Obama has improved as a candidate in the course of the year, and noted that he has run TV ads in almost every state. He spoke of the race reaching a tipping point after June 3rd, when the superdelegates could step up and call the winner.

I heard some new terms, such as the “standard of conscience” that binds delegates to their pledges, at least through the first ballot, and “the iron law of reciprocity” to describe the back scratching and log rolling that can change preliminary results.

Corrado discussed some worst case scenarios possible if there’s no decision before the August convention, such as floor fights over the Michigan and Florida delegations, rules challenges over superdelegates, and how the target numbers change as these issues are resolved, to which Thurber replied “we’ll burn that bridge when we come to it.”